End of season predictions. Controversy abounds.

This is the post in where i give my Premier League end of season predictions and I otherwise ignore the fact that i haven’t posted for month. Here we go…

Lets start with relegations! Some of you may feel you’ve been relegated to a sub-par blog by reading this. Sunderland know how you feel. As it stands they are 9 points from safety with a game in hand. It’s pretty obvious they are favorites for the fall. Not a controversial opinion here but i agree. How could they miraculously save themselves? A win out would do it. To do that they’d have to beat Arsenal and Chelsea the last two games of the season. Unlikely. Lets say the teams around Sunderland begin dropping points. Now lets say Sunderland wins all of the following games: vs struggling Arsenal, at Middlesbrough, vs Bournemouth, at Hull City, and vs Swansea. That’s 15 points and 9 off of their relegation brethren. Could it happen?? In truth this team needed points months ago and it is much too late.

Perhaps equally unlikely is a Middlesbrough recovery (ever the optimist right?). They currently sit at 24 points, 6 points out of the drop. Here’s the problem: they need wins and they can’t score goals. Bad combination. Playing for draws all year in the hopes that those add up is not a bad strategy for your first year back in the top flight. But when it doesn’t work there’s got to be a plan B. Any plan that involves goals is what Middlesbrough need as they have scored 23 all year. That’s a goal every 1.4 games. Their schedule isn’t easy either: City, Chelsea, Southampton, and Liverpool are what they have to look forward to.

Now we get to the interesting part. One of these two team will be enjoying another year of top flight football with that lucrative Premier League TV deal. The other will be taking cold trips to Barnsley next year. For me Hull City will be staying another year. I look at their schedule and see two winnable games against Watford and Sunderland. I also see Swansea with two wins left in them; at Sunderland and versus West Brom. This keeps the two point gap in Hull City’s favor and ensures Swansea’s demise. A drop for either of them is probably fair. Swansea have been atrocious this season and have gone through managers like Bob Marley did Baby-mama’s. That said Hull City have an even worse goal difference at -33 currently. It’s hard to say a team is owed to stay up if with that kind of differential. Still, for me, they survive.

Relegated: Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Swansea.

Top 4 predictions:
Chelsea
Tottenham
Man City
Liverpool

Chelsea winning with the current top 4 intact? Controversial i know. Here’s why i have Chelsea winning despite Tottenham in better form. Look at each teams remaining games. Tottenham have Crystal Palace, Arsenal, West Ham, Man United, and Leicester City. Palace, West Ham, and Leicester all have had a resurgence and are playing a lot better. All are very winnable games but i can’t see them winning all. Chelsea have real tests remaining and have room for slip ups. Seems cut and dry to me.

The top 4 is perhaps a more interesting battle. The only thing i flipped was Liverpool and City. I actually don’t think Liverpool will bottle it this year. They are very depleted but I think Klopp will get 3 wins out of the remaining fixtures. City have no real tests left and have a game in hand on Liverpool. The real intrigue here is with Manchester United. I only see 3-4 wins here against Southampton, Burnley, Swansea, and Arsenal. That puts them right at the edge of the top 4 but not enough to crack it. Of course history should tell me that United will manage to overtake Liverpool somehow. But i think this is a year where Liverpool overtake United as an annual contender.

Weeks 28-29: Not a Frenchman's Fuck

 




















You have to wonder wether if Pep Guardiola was at Barcelona or Real Madrid would he be afforded games like these. The result against Stoke was very Stoke like. They get an away point at a sparsely attended Etihad after weathering a Mancunian storm. But for City bigger questions lie. Like will anyone be left on this team come August? Guardiola seems not too impressed and even the ones performing well seem to not play the style that Pep wants to implement.

Hull City found themselves on the winning end of a game, something they’ve done much too little of this season. It’s a big 3 points for their survival make no mistake. When you're near the bottom of the table no fixtures look easy. But for Hull their end of season looks like a nightmare. They’ll be looking to knock points off of Middlesbrough and Sunderland to ensure their survival. As for Swansea this loss looks bad but they have some very winnable games left. I think this is the lowest they are the rest of the season and fancy them still for survival.

Could someone tell me how you defend against Romelu Lukaku? This guy seems to have everything. Unfortunately complete footballers aren’t synonymous with Everton and after this weeks emphatic win he announced that he would not sign a new contract with Everton FC. We all knew the end would come as Lukaku isn’t content to carry the 7th best team in England. After this news Lukaku then went on to show to that he is in fact too good for Everton by getting a brace in a rout of Hull City. The big boys are coming for him this summer and Everton will have to find a replacement.

Liverpool did something they’ve done little of this year. A comeback win against a lowly team was just what the doctor ordered. It was ugly and it was shaky but Liverpool are currently at their 3rd highest point total in the Premier League after this many games. Just goes to show you how far ahead Chelsea really are. Liverpool then followed this up with a scintillating draw at Manchester city to ensure that they will not have lost a game to the top 6 this season. They aren’t giving points to the teams around them which is good. The rest of the year will define the season as top 4 is totally achievable. However, the lower, scrappier teams that Liverpool have left are the one’s they’ve struggled with and have had no answer for.

Arsenal was one of the teams who didn’t play their week 28 game so they should have been chomping at the bit to play a Premier League game right? Arsenal has looked utterly uninspiring the past few months. This isn’t exactly ground breaking news. My angle on this is that it looks so similar to Ranieri’s firing. The players just don’t seem to want to play for Wenger. Not sure there’s any other option than one at this point. It seems only a matter of when.


Oh and Chelsea gutted out a 2-1 win. I’m getting tired of typing that.

Week 27: The Poor get Poorer

 


United drew to Bournemouth at home in a game you’d really expect them to win. Especially when you consider they were up a goal, and later were playing against 10 man Bournemouth. Zlatan had a penalty saved to add to Mourinho’s misery. This United team is hard to defeat but they don’t score many goals, having scored only 2 more than Bournemouth themselves this season. The real story of the match was the feud between Ibrahimovic and Mings though as each were involved in a posthumous banning. Mings made a dangerous stamp on Ibrahimovic’s head while Zlatan returned the favor with an elbow smack to the head. Although common in the streets of Edinburgh, such violent acts were apparently not tolerated by the FA and Mings was given a 5 game ban while Ibrahimovic was given a 3 game ban.

A Crystal Palace win ensured that things just keeping worse at the bottom of the table. Loanee Sakho once again proved his worth as Palace kept a clean sheet. For the first goal Zaha outsmarted Chris Brunt as Brunt was caught not watching the ball. Then Townsend, moving about as fast as your nan after her bowel movement, went the length of the pitch and scored the second. More importantly this result was damning for the bottom three as Middlesbrough, Hull City, and Sunderland now sit firmly in relegation all having lost.

The huge matchup of the weekend was two worst best teams of 2017 so far: Liverpool and Arsenal. Liverpool go from relegation fodder one week to champions quality the next. Unfortunately for Arsene Wenger this week it was top quality. Although he may have done himself in by leaving Alexis Sanchez on the bench, a move that baffled most as he can score out of nothing. Sanchez made his feelings known by smiling from the bench as Arsenal slowly capitulated throughout the game. In an age of mercenaries Wenger may be a dying breed; he has few friends among the players at Arsenal. For Arsenal this brings huge questions on their future not just the rest of the season but heading into the summer. For Liverpool the unpredictable is becoming all too commonplace and predictable. Which of course means a loss to Burnley next week.

Like Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier in ’75 it was a matchup of two of the best strikers in the league. Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaka simply cannot be contained and their quality was on full display. Like the cheeky Englishman he is, Kane scored the opener from much too far out and it eeked in the corner. Lukaka showed why he might be too good for Everton as he was about the only thing that kept them in the match. For Tottenham it means they’re that much closer to locking down 2nd place for a 2nd consecutive year. For Everton, it means they are still a few key pieces away from competing with the big boys. Keeping Lukaku will be a win for them this off season.

West Ham showed exactly what you don’t do against Chelsea. For their first goal they were completely beaten on a counter attack after Chelsea absorbed pressure. Once it was in Hazard’s hands there was never any doubt. In truth the scoreline is flattering to West Ham as they didn’t strike until late. Seeing as it’s all but their trophy now, what do you reckon Chelsea will do on Holiday this summer? Will Diego Costa get skin rejuvenation in Germany to once again look like the world’s oldest youngest man (Google pictures for ‘young Diego Costa)? Will Hazard ménage with Wenger and Giroud bubblebath style? Stay tuned for the summer edition of this blog to find out all the exciting details.

Week 26: The Premier League Champions won a game this year.

 


Like finding out your date was a tranny, Crystal Palace confuse me. They have plenty of talent on this squad yet they have failed to perform all year. This week however they get a very good result. This vital win still sees them in the relegation zone however they are level on points with a slipping Middlesbrough. More importantly it was a one sided Palace win with a clean sheet. They brought in Mamadou Sakho to help shore that up and apparently it is working. Well see if this Palace teem can get any consistency.

I’m sure this is the last time i’ll say this: It was the Michael Keane show as Burnley drew against Hull City. He gave away the penalty that allowed Hull to go up. Then scored the equalizer that tied the game and denied Hull their 3 points. 3 critical points at that. Although they’ll take any points at this point in the season. Burnley are clear and safe at this point. I can’t see a situation where they drop low enough with 3 months left.

Everton took a deserved victory although both sides had their chances. Sunderland hit the bar at 1-0 that could’ve completely changed the game. Then Romelu Lukaku scored on a stunning counter-attack that was as effective as the Battle of the Bulge. How about Tom Davies for Everton? Only 18 and a local lad, he looks to be the future of whatever bigger English club buys him. For the moment we shall ignore how much he looks like the King’s son from Braveheart.

Chelsea were looking to cruise as it was a one-sided affair before halftime. Then out of nowhere Swansea scored as the half ended. However Chelsea were able to score again and Swansea was never really in this one. What makes me convinced that Chelsea are going to win the title (controversial, I know) aside from their points lead is that they have a Plan B. They seem to be the only other big team that can switch tactics if things aren’t going great. They are showing an ability later in the season to hold that ball and still score goals now that teams will sit back against them.

When Harry Kane is fit and feeling good you do not to play against him. He’ll never be the one to make lambasting runs on a counter-attack but if he has the ball near your goal he can score from just about anywhere. That is truly invaluable to have on a team and his inability to run may keep to the top top teams from coming after him. He seems a perfect fit for Tottenham when fit. As for Stoke? They are fulfilling everyone’s perception of them of being the definition of Mid-table mediocrity currently sitting at 10th. Safe but not interesting.

Liverpool lost to the reigning Premier League Champions. Normally that would be okay but when that team hadn’t scored a goal yet this calendar year it’s quite embarrassing. This matchup featured arguably the two worst teams of 2017 so far. It’s not looking good for Liverpool as when Mignolet is one of your best players in a game you know things aren’t going well. Two players who wouldn’t be on the pitch without injuries to starters did not play well: Lucas and Can. This is a lack of squad depth and one must really wonder why Liverpool allowed Sakho to go on loan. Lucas looked too slow. That said the entire team was second to every ball and lacked energy after a two week vacation. Hard to see where this team is going to end up as they lack any real consistency. With that i predict a 5-0 win against Arsenal.

Week 25

 



Arsene Wenger looked like Georges Clemenceau in the stands as all he could do was stand back and watch at the moment of battle. The question with this team is who will step up when Arsene needs them the most? Apparently the answer to that is that no one gives their full body for him, just a hand. Apparently the ref apologized before the end of the game saying that the ball that went off of Alexis’ hand should not have been allowed. I’ve hear much deliberation, including many pundits who say that the goal should stand as it was un-intentional and therefore a goal by law. To me when you’re right in front of the goal and you kick it off your hand and in then it should not be a goal. Period. Apparently the only other players hand to step up for him was Sam Clucas’ as his late red card for hand ball on the line gave Arsenal a penalty that was cooly converted by Alexis Sanchez.

Southampton swept aside Sunderland 4-0 and Manolo Gabbiadini scored a brace in his second game for them. That brings his total to 3 goals in two games and at about $15 mil he looks real quality. Just the type of smart, quality move that Southampton will surely send to Liverpool for twice the price in a couple years. For Southampton it puts them firmly in mid-table. For Sunderland this kind of result obviously isn’t good but they wont’ be disheartened. They sit bottom but they know that they have to go for a win in every game they play. They somehow manage to do it every year, why not this one too?

Liverpool fear playing teams at the bottom like Sunderland. But against they top 6 they have the best record in the league. That continued this week and Liverpool ran rampant over Tottenham. Or more accurately, Sadio Mané ran rampant. He went clear through on his first goal as his pace could not be matched before perfect balance allowed him to convert. Then sheer luck as Lloris saved two consecutive shots and the final ball fell to Mané who still had to rifle it past 2 defenders on the goal line. Certainly points against the top of the table are important but Liverpools achilles heel is still bottom sides that park the bus.

Chelsea have a lot of room for error now. Although you’d normally expect Chelsea to sweep aside Burnley, Burnley have been quality this year. With an 8 point gap it certainly makes the title race more interesting. What did we learn from this result? Chelsea are susceptible on set pieces. That said scoring more than 1 goal against them has been difficult. So Chelsea know they don’t have to blow people out, they can continue getting a few goals each match and still comfortably be champions. I wouldn’t expect a Rocky movie-esque finish to the season is what i’m trying to say.

Apollo Creed got a comfortable win against an opponent you’d expect them to beat. Although they are downplaying a title chase they are certainly in it if no one else. Even if they don’t catch Chelsea they will see all the positives in this season, namely the coming of age of many young stars. At the moment it seems like the league’s best forward Sergio Aguero may find himself on the outside of this squad over the summer. Baffling. That said, there are holes in this squad and i expect them to be filled the City way: money. I think next year, and certainly by 2 years, City will have the best squad and the best manager in England.

Week 24

 


Chelsea takes the lead early on a Petr Cech miscue. He is after all a Chelsea player at heart. And Arsenal should have leveled it before half! But for the lack of talent he showed for only last year he has truly come up with one of the best solo goals you’ll ever see as he takes on Arsenal by himself. Chelsea are strutting right. Arsenal are reaching the point in the season they become Arsenal.

Everton are really showing the class that they used to be. I back Ronald Koeman for long term success with this club. Everton is a club who doesn’t like a constant turnover of managers and since David Moyes took his Scottish ways with him they have been looking for someone exactly like Koeman. But he may have to rethink where all his goals come from next year as Romelu Lukaku looks likely leave this summer with some reports saying as high as $100 million. Unlikely but you don’t lead the Premier League in goals and not draw some attention from high bidders.

Hull City added more misery to Liverpool’s start to 2017. Although they won’t particularly care that it’s specifically against Liverpool they have earned a vital 3 points despite barely holding the ball. They are in 18th and the bottom 4 seem to be rotating week to week. This relegation battle looks to be one of the best of recent memory. For Liverpool, this defeat leaves them with major question marks as to how the season will continue. Klopp is clearly the right man but he rarely takes a club by storm. He likes to build over time and in a sport as volatile as football he is asking a lot from the fans. I think FSG will stick with him for the long term though.

It was a week in which the bottom 2 won and the 3rd from bottom lost to one of those two teams. Sunderland spanked Crystal Palace 4-0 and now the bottom 6 teams are within 2 points of each other! I have defended Crystal Palace until this point but now i’m jumping off the bandwagon. They truly are the Cleveland Browns of the Premier League this season and they will be punished. They are last to every ball and they don’t play like a team despite having competent players. They remind me of the QPR team that got relegated a few seasons ago.

As far as future stars i think Manchester City have the among the best in the league. They all shone bright in the win versus Swansea. They will be inconsistent as young teams are but with Pep Guardiola guiding them the sky is the limit. This season a top 4 finish is the goal and will set them up for a stellar 2017-18 season. Today they let Swansea back into a game that they were never really in. City dominated but showed some real strength as they came back to win it.

Week 23

 


A heap of games were thrown in this midweek and relative positions at the topped remained the same. Let’s start with Arsenal who had Arsene Wenger serving the first game of his touchline ban. The most violent a Frenchmen can get is snootiness but in England bad manners are punishable. Perhaps Wenger is truly Arsenal’s 12th man as his team failed to capitalize on this opportunity. They let in a deflected free kick and then were beaten by a mazing run finished off by Troy Deeney. Arsenal had a hill to climb the size of the French Alps and they eventually managed to get a goal by Iwobi. He and Sanchez looked electric and the post was rattled in the dying minutes in what should have been a major comeback. Unfortunately Arsenal and Spurs are the only ones who looked like catching Chelsea and failed to capitalize.

Spurs played out a dull 0-0 draw that surely eliminates anyone’s title hopes if only by the fact that Chelsea lead by so much. It’s a boring result that had large implications at both ends of the table though. Sunderland needed the point as all of a sudden the relegation teams are earning more than ever. Although still in last only 3 points separate them and 18th place Crystal Palace. Palace won btw and even with those 3 points still find themselves clawing out of relegation. They are much too talented of a team to be relegated.

The fear must really be starting to creep in for the Premier League Champions now. They get promoted, barely survive, win the league the next year, and then get relegated?! Surely it can’t be. That would a fantastic tale should it come to fruition. Not only do they look toothless but they have poor resolve but also timing as witnessed by conceding a late winner this week. Really the opposite of the team last year that no one wanted to play.

Chelsea’s gameplay in theory should have worked perfectly at Liverpool: Liverpool must attack so Chelsea can hit them on the counter. In truth either team could have won, and Chelsea should have won. They got their goal from a moment of genius from David Luiz who caught Mignolet out on a set piece. But Liverpool fought back to earn a scrappy goal off Wijnaldum’s header. Then at the other end a penalty was awarded to Chelsea and Mignolet saved Costa’s poor shot. In the end a draw was fair to both sides but it damages Chelsea not at all as most of the teams below them slipped up. They are firm favorites now and it will take a lot for a single other team to overtake them.

There’s just something about West Ham’s new stadium that they apparently don’t like. In the battle of light blue kits they got thoroughly thumped at home. Really not much else to say as we all know City are capable of this kind of performance but the consistency has not been there. I think they have real quality but Pep needs some time to make his stamp.