End of season predictions. Controversy abounds.

This is the post in where i give my Premier League end of season predictions and I otherwise ignore the fact that i haven’t posted for month. Here we go…

Lets start with relegations! Some of you may feel you’ve been relegated to a sub-par blog by reading this. Sunderland know how you feel. As it stands they are 9 points from safety with a game in hand. It’s pretty obvious they are favorites for the fall. Not a controversial opinion here but i agree. How could they miraculously save themselves? A win out would do it. To do that they’d have to beat Arsenal and Chelsea the last two games of the season. Unlikely. Lets say the teams around Sunderland begin dropping points. Now lets say Sunderland wins all of the following games: vs struggling Arsenal, at Middlesbrough, vs Bournemouth, at Hull City, and vs Swansea. That’s 15 points and 9 off of their relegation brethren. Could it happen?? In truth this team needed points months ago and it is much too late.

Perhaps equally unlikely is a Middlesbrough recovery (ever the optimist right?). They currently sit at 24 points, 6 points out of the drop. Here’s the problem: they need wins and they can’t score goals. Bad combination. Playing for draws all year in the hopes that those add up is not a bad strategy for your first year back in the top flight. But when it doesn’t work there’s got to be a plan B. Any plan that involves goals is what Middlesbrough need as they have scored 23 all year. That’s a goal every 1.4 games. Their schedule isn’t easy either: City, Chelsea, Southampton, and Liverpool are what they have to look forward to.

Now we get to the interesting part. One of these two team will be enjoying another year of top flight football with that lucrative Premier League TV deal. The other will be taking cold trips to Barnsley next year. For me Hull City will be staying another year. I look at their schedule and see two winnable games against Watford and Sunderland. I also see Swansea with two wins left in them; at Sunderland and versus West Brom. This keeps the two point gap in Hull City’s favor and ensures Swansea’s demise. A drop for either of them is probably fair. Swansea have been atrocious this season and have gone through managers like Bob Marley did Baby-mama’s. That said Hull City have an even worse goal difference at -33 currently. It’s hard to say a team is owed to stay up if with that kind of differential. Still, for me, they survive.

Relegated: Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Swansea.

Top 4 predictions:
Chelsea
Tottenham
Man City
Liverpool

Chelsea winning with the current top 4 intact? Controversial i know. Here’s why i have Chelsea winning despite Tottenham in better form. Look at each teams remaining games. Tottenham have Crystal Palace, Arsenal, West Ham, Man United, and Leicester City. Palace, West Ham, and Leicester all have had a resurgence and are playing a lot better. All are very winnable games but i can’t see them winning all. Chelsea have real tests remaining and have room for slip ups. Seems cut and dry to me.

The top 4 is perhaps a more interesting battle. The only thing i flipped was Liverpool and City. I actually don’t think Liverpool will bottle it this year. They are very depleted but I think Klopp will get 3 wins out of the remaining fixtures. City have no real tests left and have a game in hand on Liverpool. The real intrigue here is with Manchester United. I only see 3-4 wins here against Southampton, Burnley, Swansea, and Arsenal. That puts them right at the edge of the top 4 but not enough to crack it. Of course history should tell me that United will manage to overtake Liverpool somehow. But i think this is a year where Liverpool overtake United as an annual contender.